Last Friday, 8th September 2023, VBF has successfully organized the Vietnam Economic Outlook H2.2023 with participation of more than 300 people both in person and via online. This inaugural Vietnam Economic Outlook event marks the beginning of a significant annual VBF event within business community in the coming time.
Presented at the event, our Co-Chair Nitin Kapoor emphasized that the first half of 2023 witnessed an economic growth rate of 3.72%, which, though not exceptionally high, stands as a testament to Vietnam’s stability. Vietnam’s macroeconomy remains secure and inflation is under control.
As projected by the experts at the event, despite the global headwinds, the outlook for Vietnam remains solid with domestic demand being the main driver for growth in 2023 and also in the near future, considering that Vietnam remains an attractive destination for foreign investors thanks to the country’s stability and openness. The country’s fiscal accounts and its debt sustainability suggest that there is space to use fiscal policy to support, in the short-term, aggregate demand and economic activity, while parallel structural reforms in the energy and banking sector could help to promote longer-term growth.
It is forecasted that the Vietnam growth is expected to reach about 4.7% in 2023 and to recover gradually during the next two years and reach 5.5% in 2024 and 6.0% in 2025. Slower growth in 2023 is driven by weak external demand which during the second semester is likely to be weaker than what was expected just few months ago. While softening with respect to the past, including the pre-COVID period, private consumption is going to be the main driver of growth going forward.
It was also highlighted that one of the challenges facing Vietnam is associated with the climate change. Vietnam is one of the world’s most vulnerable countries to climate change, ranked 13th out of 180 countries in Global Climate Risk Index. The World Bank estimates that climate change impacts could cost Vietnam a total of 14.5% of GDP during the next 25 years.
For more reference, the event presentations are available for downloading at the link below:
Taking this chance, VBF would like to express heartfelt thanks to the speakers who are leading experts from the WorldBank in Vietnam, Mizuho Bank, Dragon Capital, an CBRE for comprehensive and informative presentations.
Some media coverages on the event can be viewed at:
VTV1, Finance & Business news bulletin, Friday, 8th September 2023 (21:43)